Regime Detector
k-means (k=5) on monthly macro features from FRED: rates, CPI YoY, unemployment, real GDP YoY, and HY OAS. Confidence reflects soft assignment to the latest centroid.
Current Regime
As of 2026-03 (last month with full inputs)
Input Features
| Feature | Value |
|---|---|
| Fed funds rate (%) | 3.64 |
| CPI YoY (%) | 3.29 |
| Unemployment (%) | 4.30 |
| Real GDP YoY (%) | 2.66 |
| Money Supply YoY (%) | 4.57 |
| Housing Starts (%) | 10.85 |
| Yield Curve (%) | 0.51 |
| Consumer Sentiment | 53.30 |
Regime by Year (1995–present)
Each year uses the most common monthly regime; the percentage is how many months matched that regime.
Predict the Next Regime
What do YOU think comes next?
Current Status
Recession
1,248+ of internet experts have made predictions this month
Learn how regimes work
Understand how we detect and classify economic regimes
Learn how regimes work
What are Economic Regimes?
Economic regimes are distinct periods in the business cycle characterized by specific patterns in key macroeconomic indicators. We identify five main regimes:
Goldilocks
Moderate growth, low inflation, stable employment
Recovery
Strong growth, improving employment, supportive policy
Overheating
High inflation, tight labor market, rising rates
Stagflation
High inflation + high unemployment + weak growth
Recession
Negative growth, high unemployment, falling rates
How We Detect Regimes
We use machine learning (k-means clustering) on 8 key macro indicators to identify patterns and classify the current economic environment. When data is limited, we fall back to rule-based detection using economic thresholds.
Model: 182 monthly observations · Not investment advice.